The goal of forecasting isn’t to be right, but to be as right as possible given the information and uncertainty at the time.

One tactic I’ve used to help people get over the fear of forecasting is to reframe it as getting an incrementally less wrong answer than we have now.

⏰ Team: We will miss the completion date but I can’t tell you when it will be done. Me: Do you agree the current date definitely will not happen? Team: Yes Me: Ok, then what is a more likely date?

🏁 Team: I don’t know how much work we will complete for customer X in July. Me: Is it likely to be zero? Team: No. Me: Ok, then what’s a better estimate than zero?

Something about this type of question/reframing reduces team members’ anxiety about prediction without reducing the meaningfulness of the answer and the person’s feeling of accountability to the prediction.